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The Death of President General Pervez Musharraf: Catalyst for Nuclear World War (or The Emperor’s New Clothes Revisited)

07/20/2007

Everybody knows it but it is that fear whose name can not be spoken. So international policy makers continue to nod and curtsey and bury their head in the sand whenever the topic is even tangentially broached.

If there is anyone in the world who truly has a tiger by the tail it is President Musharraf of Pakistan. Make no mistake, he is no friend of the United States. But out of enlightened self-interest he has become a double-dealing pseudo-partner in the United State’s war on terror. Oh, to have been a fly on the wall during the conversation between Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and Musharraf's intelligence director just after 9/11! Pakistan (being a known supporter of their neighbors the Taliban and the only Islamic country known to possess nuclear weapons) was given the option of joining us in our fight or being “bombed back to the Stone Age.” The need for an immediate decision was made clear by “Bulldog” Armitage and Musharraf, being a pragmatic man, made the only choice he could.¹

The result was to make Musharraf the keystone of an impossibly unstable house of cards. Pakistan is sympathetic of the Taliban and a substantial amount of their support is based there. The tribal warlords of Pakistan’s are very powerful and have the support of most of the population. Those same warlords are known to provide safe havens for al-Qaeda’s senior leadership (perhaps even Osama himself), hate the United States, and want Musharraf dead. Multiple assassination attempts sponsored by them have failed to achieve their goal. On one Pakistani border is China (the most populous country in the world with the world’s largest army, a large nuclear arsenal, the world’s fastest growing economy, and a bone to pick with the US) who is the primary supplier of weapons and weapon technology to Pakistan. On the other is India (a nuclear rival with whom they have an on-again off-again war over Kashmir).

So on the one hand, Musharraf is trying to satisfy the US by providing support for the war in Afghanistan and keeping the Al-Qaeda cells operating in their remote regions on a low simmer. On the other, he is trying to keep the majority of the population of his country (which are Islamic fundamentalists with the tribal warlords as their defacto representative) at bay by making agreements with the tribal warlords not to interfere with them. The latest agreement between them has been declared null and void by the latter due to a recent takeover of a mosque which ended badly. That means its open season again on Musharraf and his government and there is no bag limit.

In the background of all this chaos, there sits quietly under lock and key somewhere an estimated 60 nuclear warheads² waiting for their chance to take a ride on one of the new Shaheen II missles (with a reported range of 3500 km³) or on one of the new F-16s we’ve provided. Or perhaps in the cargo hold of a ship.

With the new Shaheen II missles all of the Middle East (including our military bases in Iraq and the nation of Israel) are within range (from launch to detonation would be only a matter of minutes). With our F-16s, the range is even further. And of course, with a wink and a nod between a terrorist and a ship captain, they could wind up anywhere in the world…even one or more of our cities.

The only thing which stands in the way of a fundamentalist Islamic state having nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them is President Musharraf. Sooner or later, one of the assassination attempts WILL succeed. And at that point, we will instantly be faced with the most terrible of decisions.

Unfortunately, we don’t have the luxury of waiting to see if any of Musharraf’s subordinates are strong enough to prevent the inevitable coup attempt following his death. And democracy is one of the worst things that could happen to Pakistan (and for the rest of the world as well). With Musharraf gone, we must immediately act to ensure that those nuclear weapons do NOT become the private arsenal of a suicidal Islamic state. Or wind up being sold to al-Qaeda for use when and where they please.

The idea of landing troops there in sufficient numbers and force to secure the nuclear sites (assuming we know where all of them are) is untenable. It would take too long to organize and would essentially require a full scale invasion of Pakistan to secure and remove the weapons.

Destroying the sites with conventional weapons (again, assuming we know where they all are) is unlikely to succeed since I’m sure that the bunkers where they are housed are designed to survive conventional attack.

Its time for us to start thinking about the unthinkable. Upon Musharraf’s death, the only option which we will have to ensure elimination of an imminent nuclear threat from an Islamic state or from al-Qaeda will be a pre-emptive nuclear strike on all known nuclear facilities within Pakistan. This may have to be followed up with a limited ground invasion to ensure that all storage areas for nuclear weapons or their components have been destroyed. Casualties will be high and world opinion will unanimously be against us. The Muslim world will go indiscriminately crazy. But the alternative is to resign ourselves to the fact that those nuclear weapons will surely be used against us and our allies and the results will make 9/11 look like a picnic.

But it gets worse…China may decide to come to the aid of their old ally. They may decide to respond in kind. Or India may be unable to constrain itself from taking advantage of the helplessness of their old adversary and use it as a pretense for a full scale invasion. If that should occur, China would surely act. And in short order, we find Pakistan destroyed with the US, China, and India fighting each other as a result. And it just goes down hill from there.

And all of this hangs on the life of a single man who is already a moving target. The world could change in a New York second…but take heart. If you are born of the Spirit, then you know that world that we see is destined for destruction but the world that is unseen is forever. For those of us looking for a better country, we know that the time of our redemption is drawing near.

2 Peter 3:7 But by His word the present heavens and earth are being reserved for fire, kept for the day of judgment and destruction of ungodly men.

Hebrews 11:16 But as it is, they desire a better country, that is, a heavenly one. Therefore God is not ashamed to be called their God; for He has prepared a city for them.

Matthew 24:6 You will be hearing of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not frightened, for those things must take place, but that is not yet the end.

Luke 21:28 And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh.